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Combine harvesterReport on the Meta-Analysis of Crop Modelling for Climate Change and Food Security Survey

A key element in understanding future food security is the ability to use simulation models of crop growth to make projections of productivity based on future climate scenarios. Many crop models exist around the world, but are often developed independently. Some models have been developed to represent a single crop or part of a crop production process (i.e. soil nitrogen), whilst others have the capability to model multiple crops in complex rotations and under vary management, weather and soil conditions.

In order to better understand the global extent of crop model development and to identify gaps in capabilities, and to determine the geographical coverage and range of crops represented, The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP) Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Challenge Programme (CCAFS) commissioned the MLURI and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to conduct an on-line survey of people involved in crop modelling, climate change and food security.

The aim was to collate information, opinions and expert feedback across a wide range of people involved, either directly or in-directly, on crop model development and application. The purpose of this was to build up information representing the crop modelling community’s current views on the state of model development, and how they can be improved to support research and decision making on issues of climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation, and food security.

CCAFS report front coverDownload the report (pdf)

CCAFS is a major collaborative endeavour between the CGIAR and ESSP research communities, and their respective partners. Research over a ten-year period is aimed at:

  • Overcoming the additional threats posed by a changing climate to achieving food security
  • Enhancing livelihoods
  • Improving environmental management in the developing world.

The report, and other CCAFS publications, can also be accessed from their Publications site.

Post your comments on the survey and report at the HarvestChoice website.

A draft version of the report was presented at the kick-off meeting of the Agricultural Modelling Intercomparison and Improvement Project – AgMIP (27-30th October 2010 in Long Beach, California). AgMIP is a distributed climate-scenario simulation research activity for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural land use, production, and economic modelling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. AgMIP places regional changes in agricultural land use and production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces of agricultural supply and demand. The three-year project provides the necessary integrated, transdisciplinary framework to assess climate impacts on the agricultural sector and builds capacity for continuing agricultural assessment and management in developing countries under changing climate conditions. AgMIP results are designed as contributions to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

For further information, please contact Mike Rivington.

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Updated: 15 Jun 2016, Content by: RM