The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report concluded that climate change in Europe is expected to magnify regional differences in natural resources and assets. While warmer temperatures in northern latitudes may be beneficial to crop yields, negative impacts will include increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion. Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60%). In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to further increase temperatures and drought in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism and, in general, crop productivity. Climate change is also projected to increase the health risks due to heat-waves, and the frequency of wildfires.

Much research at Macaulay has focused on impacts of climate change on the ecology, soils, hydrology and land use of Scotland. This includes the likely impacts of climate change on changes in species distribution at multiple spatial scales, and the impacts on the sustainability of agricultural systems.

Current projects:

• An evaluation of the regional impacts of climate change on agriculture – work by the Land Allocation and Decision Support team 1991-1993.
• Evaluating Hadley Centre HADRM3 site-specific climate data – comparing model predictions with observed data
• Coping with climate change – a case study analysis of the impacts of climate change on mixed farming in Scotland and Italy
• Agro-meteorological indicators of climate change - research on adaptation in the agriculture sector supported by the Scottish Government Science Engagement fund
• EURO-LIMPACTS project - how climate change and other phenomena will affect European freshwater ecosystems
• The effect of land use change and climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases

Other research:

• Human responses
• Ecosystem services