DYNAMIC MODELS TO PREDICT AND SCALE-UP THE IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING

Contract ENV4-CT95-0030 - DYNAMO

Research project of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Initiative (TERI)

Part of the 'Environment and Climate' Research Programme of the European Commission

Directorate General XII/D-1

Website compiled and updated by R.C. Helliwell

DYNAMO Co-ordinator e-mail: r.ferrier@macaulay.ac.uk

Information e-mail: r.helliwell@macaulay.ac.uk

At present various acidification models are available ranging from simple static lumped empirical models to complex dynamic distributed process orientated models. Most acidification models are process orientated. Soil and/or surface water acidification is predicted by describing processes in the soil system that have a major influence on soil and water quality responses. These dynamic simulation models have been designed for use on a continental scale to national scale, such as MAGIC and SMART/SMART2, or on a national and regional scale, such as RESAM, or for use on a catchment or site scale such as NUCSAM.

• Dynamic Models
• Site Descriptions
• Upscaling
• Related Research

Within DYNAMO the single and interactive effects of three dominant environmental driving variables on biogeochemical cycling in natural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are assessed by the models previously mentioned. The environmental driving variables include:-

1. Acidic deposition denotes acidifying compounds derived from emissions of SOx, NOx and NH4 to the atmosphere.

2. Global change denotes changes in atmospheric composition, in particular CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation.

Global Change

3. Land use denotes primary changes in forest management practices, including commercial forestry.

Dynamic models can be applied to scenarios of future change with environmental driving variables that are realistic for the next 50 years, and appropriate for the sites and regions included in this Europe wide project.

Extensive databases are available for the sites/regions selected for DYNAMO which enables the site response to be scaled up to a regional/landscape and river basin level. These data include regional or national surveys of the driving variables (acid deposition, land use change, climatic change) and of response variables (stream and lake chemistry, soil, forest growth and vitality). The driving variables considered in DYNAMO have changed either 'naturally' or by large scale manipulation experiments which include projects in Risdalsheia, southern Norway and Aber, north Wales.

The sites and regions selected for this project and the respective model applications are shown in the table below.

The overall objectives of DYNAMO are:

• Apply and evaluate dynamic biogeochemical models at intensively-studied catchments/large forest stands
• Use these models to scale up in space from the catchment/stand to the regional and continental scale
• Use these models to scale up in time from observations over several years to predict future impacts over decades under scenarios of global change, acid deposition and land use.

DYNAMO also links into TERI (Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Initiative) under the thematic area 5 which involves the integration, up scaling and scenarios studies at sites/regions in Europe.