This idea of a ‘virtuous circle’ has parallels in the ‘adaptive cycle’ concept put forward by Gunderson & Holling (2001) which sees Socio-ecological Systems (SESs) cycling through various phases –exploitation (r), conservation (K), creative destruction (?), and reorganisation (α) (Figure 1). Both concepts recognise that change is an intrinsic property of SESs, and that static equilibrium states are seldom reached.

Figure 1 : Schematic diagrams of the adaptive cycle (from Gunderson & Holling, 2001)

Borrowing from complex adaptive systems theory, Walker et al. (2004) have conceptualised SESs as being located on stability landscapes (landscapes being used here in a topological rather than topographical sense) which contain basins of attraction representing a range of possible states with similar characteristics. A SES is hypothesised to cycle within a particular basin of attraction, although external perturbations at critical times may, depending on circumstances, transform it into a neighbouring basin of attraction representing a significantly different type of system, particularly if it is close to a critical threshold (Walker & Meyers, 2004).

The concept of system resilience is used to describe the amount of effort required to move from one basin of attraction into another. Basins of attraction and resilience are merely system characteristics, neither intrinsically good or bad, and it is only when particular basins of attraction are considered more desirable than others that the concept of value enters. The adaptability of the system is the degree to which the components of the system can influence its internal dynamics and hence its resilience.

Adaptive cycle patterns have been discerned in several socio-ecological systems (for examples, see Gunderson & Pritchard Jr, 2002; Allison & Hobbs, 2004). An example of such dynamics in the historical Scottish context is that of the 18-19th century highland clearances, in which an external perturbation of increased wool prices resulted in a major shift from crofting agriculture to extensive sheep grazing with dramatic consequences on the social, economic and ecological capital (and hence landscapes) of significant areas of Scotland (Richards, 2000).

his can be thought of as a transformation from a basin of attraction representing crofting to a new basin of attraction representing grazing, passing through the ?, α and r phases of the adaptive cycle in doing so. The persistence of the resulting SES in many of these areas for nearly two centuries would suggest that, under the prevailing socio-economic conditions, it has a high degree of resilience or that its basin of attraction is relatively ‘deep’.

However, it is conceivable that current rural policy reform, climate change, and pressure from other drivers such as demographic trends and public demand for recreational landscapes, may represent the beginnings of a transformation of rural Scotland into another basin of attraction with reorganisation into new social, economic and ecological configurations. However, it is far from clear whether this is the case, and if it is, what the nature of the new basin of attraction will be and whether it will be desirable or not.